Quantifying Flexibility of Residential Thermostatically Controlled Loads for Demand Response: A Data-driven Approach

Power systems are undergoing a paradigm shift due to the influx of variable renewable generation to the supply side. The resulting increased uncertainty has system operators looking to new resources, enabled by smart grid technologies, on the demand side to maintain the balance between supply and demand. This study uses a unique data set to estimate and validate models of demand response from residential thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs)— specifically, HVAC units—and quantifies the extent to which a population of TCLs can provide demand response (DR). We use measured temperature setpoints, internal temperatures, compressor cycling ratio and metered energy data collected from over 4200 homes in Texas during the summer of 2012. Using autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for individual households, we investigate the instantaneous power shed, the duration of the power shed, steady state energy savings and total energy savings. Specifically, we provide insight into the dependency of household DR availability to the temperature setpoint schedule, outdoor air temperature and time of the day.